Study Finds Direct Link between Air Pollution and Falling Birth Rates

A comprehensive analysis of the impact of various types of air pollutants on birth rates in Europe has been carried out by researchers at the HUN-REN Center for Economic and Regional Studies (HUN-REN CERS). While it has been already known that air pollution has a major impact on our lives and health, the recent study shows that there is a link between air pollution and declining fertility rates – an issue that is not only a public health concern but also has significant policy implications.

The study examined 657 regions across Europe between 2013 and 2020, the Hungarian research center reported on its website. In the quasi-experimental approach, wind speed and the number of cold (‘heating’) days were used to explore the causal effects of pollution concentrations. Their study examined ten major pollutants: nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone (O₃), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter of varying sizes (PM2.5 and PM10), benzene (C₆H₆), lead (Pb), and carbon monoxide (CO).

“According to existing research, the number of cold days does not directly affect fertility. However, colder days result in increased heating, which in turn raises air pollution levels. By leveraging this, we can isolate periods with lower or higher pollution levels,” explained Ágnes Szabó-Morvai, Senior Research Fellow at HUN-REN CERS and Research Fellow at the University of Debrecen.

The researchers point out that previous estimates of the impact of air pollution on fertility have generally been limited both geographically and temporally.

In contrast, their study analyzed data from 657 regions in Europe and neighboring areas, using up to six years of data, while birth rate data were collected from 36 countries and surrounding regions in Europe.

The HUN-REN researchers’ findings reveal a direct causal link between higher concentrations of particulate matter and a significant decline in birth rates.

Specifically, an increase in airborne particulate matter leads to a 14.1% drop in births the following year, with a further 17.2% decline two years later.

This effect is particularly pronounced in lower-GDP regions, underscoring the greater challenges faced by economically disadvantaged areas. The researchers found that while particulate matter had a substantial impact on fertility, other pollutants had a negligible effect.

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The research center points out that a number of studies have previously shown that higher levels of pollutants such as PM2.5, PM10, and ozone negatively affect children’s health, increasing the likelihood of low birth weight, infant mortality and asthma. As an instance they cite a research by Currie and Schwandt (2016). The 2016 study provides evidence that exposure to air pollution from the 9/11 dust cloud significantly increased the likelihood of preterm birth and low birth weight.

Fact

PM10 refers to particulate matter with a diameter of less than 10 micrometers. This threshold is crucial, as larger particles are significantly less harmful, being filtered out by the respiratory system before they reach the lungs. In contrast, PM2.5—comprising particles smaller than 2.5 micrometers—poses a far greater health risk due to its ability to penetrate deep into the lungs. The researchers focused on these two categories because they are standard air quality metrics monitored in Hungary and across Europe, they point out.

The research underlines the need for targeted environmental measures.

By reducing levels of particulate matter, governments could not only improve public health but also contribute to reducing Europe’s declining fertility rate – particularly important in the face of an aging population and a shrinking workforce.

The research has shown that airborne particulate matter has a significant impact on fertility. The primary sources of these pollutants include wood and coal combustion, as well as soot emissions from petrol and diesel engines. “Introducing more energy-efficient heating systems, modernizing vehicle fleets, and tightening vehicle registration regulations would not only improve air quality but could also help increase birth rates,” added the HUN-REN researcher.

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