At some point this week, you’ve probably heard somebody say most games between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are “close.”
There’s no avoiding the narrative.
In the 10 meetings this decade between the Ravens and Steelers, only one was decided by more than a touchdown. And five of those 10 games were decided by three points or fewer. The only blowout in recent memory came three weeks ago, a 34-17 Baltimore victory at the Crab Cake on Dec. 21.
That game closed Ravens -7.5.
Fast-forward to this week, where multiple Las Vegas oddsmakers opened Saturday night’s game at Baltimore -9 with a total of [O/U] 46. Respected play has knocked the line up to Ravens -9.5 and even -10 at some shops.
Maybe the number is just right the third time around.
“I think it’s the right number,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of race and sports John Murray told FOX Sports. “The Ravens have a very high power rating. We would make them the favorite at Arrowhead in the AFC Championship against the Chiefs. Plus, Russell Wilson looks terrible.
“There’s also the element of teasers. You want to keep that line high and make people pay the tax to get the game under three [points].”
Power ratings don’t always pay the bills in the playoffs, and they certainly didn’t for any Ravens backers against Kansas City in last year’s AFC title game. Sharps bet Baltimore hand over fist, gobbling up -3, -3.5 and -4 all the way to -5. Naturally, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs won outright.
Not that Pittsburgh mirrors Kansas City or anything.
I don’t have a single dollar on the side or total, but I did scoop up some tickets on Lamar Jackson at 47-1 to lead the wild card round in rushing yards.
Ten bucks wins you $470.
Over in the NFC, we’ve got a doozy of a game on FOX this Sunday afternoon. The Philadelphia Eagles host the Green Bay Packers and nobody really knows just how healthy quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love truly are.
Hurts missed Week 17 and 18 after a concussion and Love exited Week 18 with an elbow injury against the Bears. He was seen throwing footballs on the sideline late in the fourth quarter, but the Packers let Malik Willis finish.
Should the Eagles be on upset alert against the Packers?
This point spread has bounced between Philly -4 and -5 over the last couple of days in Vegas and the total hasn’t really budged off the opener of [O/U] 45.5.
“We’re proceeding as if both quarterbacks will go,” Murray said.
“We did take sharp money on the Packers at +5.5, which brought us down to 5, where we’re holding right now. This is for sure the best game of the opening round, and we’re writing it that way.”
Love raised eyebrows in his first two playoff starts last year. He threw three touchdowns to lead Green Bay to a 48-32 victory in Dallas. The following week, Green Bay led San Francisco 21-17 in the final minutes of the divisional round. Christian McCaffrey scored the game-winner with 1:07 to go.
Everybody knows what the Eagles offense is capable of when its weapons are all in tow. Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and a powerful five-pack of linemen highlight that side of the ball, but there’s a distinct possibility Philadelphia is better on defense.
“The defense is legit,” Murray admitted. “Their defense and running game make them a team that has every opportunity to make a deep playoff run.
“It’s all about that coach. If [Nick Sirianni] sticks to the ground game and trusts the defense, the Eagles should end up back in the NFC Championship with all that talent.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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