AFC East winners and losers from first wave of NFL free agency

The AFC East might have gotten worse during the early phase of free agency. 

It’s not time for any of the teams to panic, however. The Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins knew they would have to shed talent to get under the salary cap. The New York Jets, hoping to keep their salary cap situation healthy, were not expected to spend big money. 

But the New England Patriots were expected to be big players in this year’s free agency, between their $100 million in cap space and new head coach Jerod Mayo joking they were going to “burn some cash” (a comment he later walked back). Beyond retaining some of their own players, it has been a quiet free agency for New England. That has so far been the biggest surprise.

So let’s take a look at some of the biggest winners and losers from the transactions so far.

WINNERS

Jordan Poyer, safety, Dolphins 

With Buffalo managing a cap crunch, the Bills decided that Poyer was expendable. And when you look at the contract he signed with Miami (one year, $2 million), the veteran safety doesn’t exactly look like a true free agency winner in a fiscal sense. But he joins a secondary that includes Jevon Holland and Jalen Ramsey. Poyer leaves one AFC East team that’s perennially competing for a Super Bowl to join another that intends to do just that. Plus, signing with the Dolphins means he gets a chance for revenge twice a year. 

Khalil Shakir, WR, Bills 

Buffalo replaced receiver Gabe Davis, who left for the Jaguars, with Mack Hollins. That’s a significant downgrade on the perimeter. The Bills were comfortable making that decision because they saw Shakir get hot at the end of the season. They are likely going to make heavy use of Stefon Diggs, Shakir, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox in 2024. Buffalo will probably draft a rookie receiver high — maybe even in the first round — but the Bills won’t count on that youngster or Hollins to have major roles in the passing game.

Joe Barry, LBs coach, Dolphins 

Miami parted ways with their linebackers coach from 2023, Anthony Campanile. The Dolphins brought in Barry along with new defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver. That whole unit could be considered losers with the departure of Christian Wilkins. But Miami used what little cap space it had to revamp the linebacker spots, with the additions of inside linebackers Jordyn Brooks and Anthony Walker and edge Shaquil Barrett. 

It seems the Dolphins have added a starter (Brooks) and a reliable depth option who can start if necessary (Walker). Barrett will replace Andrew Van Ginkel, who was a rotational pass-rusher who had a big role when Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb missed time with injuries. Barry already has more to work with this year than Campanile had last year.

Christian Wilkins, DT, Raiders 

Speaking of Wilkins, he just signed a deal with Las Vegas worth $110 million over four years. That’s an incredible sum of money. Wilkins is so far the second highest-paid free agent in 2024 (in average annual value) behind only Kirk Cousins. He’s no longer technically in the AFC East, but his signing will have massive consequences on the teams that no longer have to face him twice a year.

Joe Tippmann & Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, Jets

I’m not sure how much of an upgrade the Jets’ acquisitions will provide on the offensive line. New York added former Ravens guard John Simpson to replace Laken Tomlinson at left guard. And then the Jets traded for Ravens right tackle Morgan Moses to replace a deep cast of players from last year.

But there’s good news for Tippmann and Vera-Tucker, who seem likely to slot back into their natural positions. Tippmann was a center in college who had to play guard during his rookie season out of necessity. Vera-Tucker is a guard whom the Jets moved to right tackle before he suffered an injury. It’s always best to set players up for success by placing them in the position they play best. That’s what New York is working toward in 2024.

How many distractions can Aaron Rodgers cause for the Jets?

LOSERS

The Patriots‘ next quarterback 

I know New England signed Jacoby Brissett, and his contract indicates he could start. But I think that would be only in case of an emergency. Under perfect circumstances, Brissett will serve as a backup to whoever the Patriots draft at No. 3 overall, likely LSU QB Jayden Daniels or UNC QB Drake Maye. 

But here’s the bad news for that rookie (or Brissett). New England entered free agency with the most money to spend in the NFL, and while they retained guard Michael Onwenu and tight end Hunter Henry, the Patriots didn’t make any major acquisitions in the early days. Tight end Austin Hooper isn’t going to get New England out of the bottom of the league in terms of production. And the Patriots spent most of their efforts courting Calvin Ridley while Jerry Jeudy, Diontae Johnson, Gabe Davis and Darnell Mooney found new homes. 

There are more options out there: Marquise Brown, Mike Williams and maybe even Tee Higgins in a trade. But as of now, New England’s offense looks mostly unchanged. That’s really bad news for whoever plays QB for them in 2024.

Eliot Wolf, de-facto GM, Patriots 

New England was a prominent player for receiver Ridley, who ended up with the Tennessee Titans. But it never really felt like the Patriots could land their prized receiver, who seemed only interested in putting New England’s offer on the table to drive up his asking price with the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Titans. 

That’s a really bad sign for the Patriots, who don’t seem to be having success signing free agents this offseason. Their top signings include Brissett,  Hooper, tackle Chukwuma Okorafor and linebacker Sione Takitaki. That’s an extremely disappointing free–agent class for a team that had $100 million to spend. There’s still time in free agency, but the early returns from Wolf were not impressive.

Sean McDermott, coach, Bills 

Buffalo’s big day of cuts must have been hard on McDermott, who lost three of his starting defensive backs: Poyer, Micah Hyde and Tre’Davious White. To make life more difficult, the Bills parted ways with one of their offensive leaders in center Mitch Morse. The Bills are clearly emphasizing a youth movement on defense, which began last year after they suffered many injuries on that side of the ball. But they always had Hyde and Poyer as a safety net. 

This year, they have Taylor Rapp and …. well, it’s unclear who will start alongside Rapp at safety. McDermott and new defensive coordinator Bobby Babich will have to figure out how to coach up the back end of the secondary.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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