Biggest winners, losers from NFL’s head coaching hires

Ralph Vacchiano

NFC East Reporter

One quarter of the 32 NFL teams rode the coaching carousel this offseason, hoping that someone new could turn around the fortunes of their franchise. Five of the eight teams chose first-time head coaches. Three chose candidates with experience.

And it’ll probably be a few years before any of them know for sure whether they made the right choice.

Of course, judgments will be made much quicker than that in a league that has become about instant gratification more than ever before. So, while this list might look a bit different three years down the road, here are the five biggest winners and losers from the NFL’s 2024 head coach hiring cycle — at least so far:

WINNERS

Los Angeles Chargers: No franchise has wasted more talent over the past few years, thanks to the terrible stewardship of Brandon Staley. And to help fix that, they landed the man who was, arguably, the best available candidate — Jim Harbaugh, the white whale that the NFL has been chasing for years. He probably could have had his pick of jobs, but seemed to want only this one. He comes fresh off a national championship with the University of Michigan, and with memories of his stellar four years with the San Francisco 49ers from 2011-14 that included a 44-19-1 regular-season record, three straight trips to the NFC championship game and one Super Bowl appearance. He instantly legitimizes the Chargers and will surely, finally get the most out of franchise quarterback Justin Herbert.

Las Vegas Raiders: They had the money and the desire to make a big splash in the market and maybe throw some money Jim Harbaugh’s way. Instead, they did the sensible thing and listened to their players who loved playing for interim head coach Antonio Pierce. He didn’t work miracles there. He took over a 3-5 team and went 5-4 the rest of the way, but they played much better under his direction and believed they were headed toward better times. The move also corrected a mistake from two years ago when Raiders owner Mark Davis ignored his players who wanted him to permanently hire popular interim head coach Rich Bisaccia. He hired Josh McDaniels instead, and that decision proved to be disastrous.

Antonio Pierce reached out to Tom Coughlin after taking over as Raiders HC

Raheem Morris: It’s been 12 years since his last head-coaching stint, when he was overmatched in Tampa from 2009-11 after he got the job at age 34 and went 17-31. And every offseason since, there’s been chatter about how he’s deserving of another shot. Finally, the Falcons gave it to him in what was something of a stunning reversal. Morris was their interim coach after Dan Quinn was fired following an 0-5 start in 2020. Morris went 4-7 and the Falcons turned to Arthur Smith instead. Now they turn back to Morris, who remarkably beat out Bill Belichick for the job.

Dave Canales: There’s always one choice every cycle that leaves people around the NFL scratching their heads, and this was it. It’s not that the 42-year-old Canales isn’t well-respected. He did great work with Geno Smith as the quarterbacks coach in Seattle in 2022 and with Baker Mayfield as the Bucs offensive coordinator last year. It’s still a big leap for a guy with one year experience as a coordinator. But he inherits gold — a team with low expectations, a young franchise quarterback in Bryce Young, and an owner with deep pockets. That owner (David Tepper) is a little unpredictable, but Canales has a good buffer in his good friend Dan Morgan, the Panthers’ new general manager.

Washington Commanders: Yes, it’s true, whether they’ll admit it or not: Dan Quinn was their third choice. New general manager Adam Peters had his sights set on Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson up until he started to wonder if Johnson really wanted the job. Then they reportedly made an offer to Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who took an offer from Seattle instead. But sometimes the best deals are the ones that aren’t made. Quinn is a strong, experienced leader who once took the Atlanta Falcons to the Super Bowl as a head coach. He’s also smart enough to know he needed a good offensive coordinator, which he got in Kliff Kingsbury. Just ask the defensive players in Dallas: Quinn will have the Commanders believing they can win, and he’ll put them in a position to do it, too.

Is Dan Quinn to Commanders is a good hire

LOSERS

Bill Belichick: The man has 302 wins, six Super Bowl championship rings as a head coach, three Coach of the Year awards, and is generally considered one of the three or four greatest coaches of all time. So why did only one team — the Falcons — really pursue him this offseason? And they interviewed him twice before choosing Raheem Morris instead. The Chargers picked Jim Harbaugh over him. The Commanders thought about him before hiring Dan Quinn. Everyone thinks Belichick will be back on the sidelines in 2025, but the lack of serious interest sure makes that seem uncertain. Did he want too much money or too much power? Or do teams just want younger coaches? Now he’s 71 and still needs 15 wins to pass Don Shula on the all-time coaching wins list. Will he ever get there?

Ben Johnson: He was the most sought-after candidate during the offseason, interviewing with six of the eight teams that had vacancies. He’ll probably be a hot candidate again next offseason if the Lions offense that he directs is successful in 2024. But boy did his reputation take a hit around the league. There were reports that he was asking to become one of the highest-paid coaches in the NFL. A lot of people were shocked at how he turned the Commanders down — via text when they were already on their way to Detroit to do a second interview with him. Some teams will overlook that if his success continues, but for many others it will be hard to forget.

New England Patriots: A franchise can’t be considered a winner when they give up one of the greatest coaches of all time, when he clearly wanted to continue coaching. Sure, the last two years have been terrible, but it’s pretty clear that was because of their quarterback issues. Now, instead of hiring an experienced coach — like former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel — they turned the franchise over to the most inexperienced head coach in the field. Maybe Jerod Mayo, who spent the past five years as Belichick’s inside linebackers coach, will be a heck of a coach. But that’s still a heck of a leap, especially into a job where he’s being asked to step into Belichick’s shoes.

Did Mac Jones foster ‘toxic’ quarterback room for Patriots?

Tennessee Titans: They ended up getting rid of one of the most well-respected head coaches in the league because of a tale as old as time: A power struggle. Mike Vrabel wanted more of it. Owner Amy Adams Strunk wanted that power in the hands of general manager Ran Carthon. Relationships soured and Vrabel — who went 54-45 with three playoff appearances in six years — was out. Then, despite plenty of seasoned coaches on the market, they turned to Brian Callahan, a 39-year-old who spent the last five years as the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati. That probably guarantees the end of any power struggles. How much more winning they’ll do remains to be seen.

Mike Vrabel — When the Titans shocked everyone by firing him after the season, he figured to be at the top of everyone’s wishlist. But executives around the NFL were stunned at the lack of interest. The only serious interest he seemed to get was from the Chargers, who only had him as a fallback choice in case Harbaugh stayed in Michigan. One report suggested Vrabel was “very intimidating” physically, which made him difficult for some GMs to hire. Surely his lack of opportunities had more to do with his desire for power and worries about the way things ended in Tennessee. He’s going to have to get past that to get back on the coaching carousel next year.

Ralph Vacchiano is the NFC East reporter for FOX Sports, covering the Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.