Two of the biggest games in college football this weekend will be at Indiana and Vanderbilt. Who thought we would’ve said that sentence before?
Well, the No. 2 Hoosiers have been one of the best teams in the nation, and Indiana will be the backdrop for “Big Noon Kickoff” ahead of its matchup against a hot UCLA team on Saturday. Later in the day, 10th-ranked Vanderbilt hosts 15th-ranked Missouri in a key matchup for the SEC race and the College Football Playoff picture.
I’ll be on the call for the UCLA-Indiana matchup, so I won’t provide a pick there, but I’ve got picks for the other top games in Week 9.
Here’s a preview of the upcoming slate.
These two programs have been at the center of two of the best stories in the sport as of late — between Indiana’s rise to No. 2 and UCLA bouncing back from a disastrous 0-4 start to gain some momentum. The Bruins changed coaches, upset Penn State and are now riding a three-game win streak under interim head coach Tim Skipper.
UCLA’s offense has gotten a lot better since the coaching change. We know QB Nico Iamaleava is talented, but the coaching change has allowed for a lot more freedom in this offense. The Bruins are playing with an urgency that was not there before, and that can only lead me to believe they understand fully what they’re doing — why, what and how. Everyone knows what to do on any given play. Some teams know how to do it really well and the fundamentals that will allow them to be successful. Very few teams, however, understand why they’re doing certain things getting in certain sets, what the concept is designed to do, and those teams and units that understand the why of football are generally the ones that have a lot of success.
On the other side, this Indiana team is one of the best in the country and the only one that’s in the top five in scoring offense and defense. The Hoosiers are balanced. Their quarterback is a favorite to win the Heisman trophy. They’ve got veteran players that are excellent, particularly on the outside. I love what wide receiver Elijah Surrat brings them. They can run the ball. This is as good of a college football team as there is in the country right now.
Indiana’s coordinators on both sides of the ball are elite and know how to attack the other team’s tendencies. What’s difficult about this matchup, though, is that UCLA’s defense doesn’t have a lot of tendencies right now. UCLA is devising a game plan and a structure unique every week. It’s something I’ve never seen quite before on film.
This is a massive game for both teams. For Texas A&M, it controls its destiny regarding the SEC title game, but this trip to Death Valley hasn’t been kind in the past. The stakes for LSU are obvious, as it’s not just playing to keep its CFP hopes alive, but head coach Brian Kelly desperately needs this one as questions about his future continue to rise.
Unfortunately for LSU, it’ll be without starting left tackle Tyree Adams for a few weeks. That’s a big loss for this game, as it has to block Aggies defensive end Cashius Howell, who has eight sacks this season. If LSU can’t run the ball effectively, Howell will have the ability to have a pin-your-ear-back style of pass rush against quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. That’s just not going to benefit LSU.
This Texas A&M defense didn’t play too well against Arkansas last week, but I think we can chalk it up to interim head coach Bobby Petrino improving that Razorbacks offense. Still, I believe A&M can play quality defense against an LSU offense that hasn’t played too solidly this season. In fact, LSU hasn’t scored more than 24 points in a game against an FBS opponent this season.
LSU’s defense struggled for the first time all season last week against Vanderbilt. Commodores QB Diego Pavia got after the Tigers with his athleticism, and now they face Heisman hopeful Marcel Reed, who is a similar style of playmaker. He might not be as creative as Pavia, but Reed certainly can impact the game as a threat outside the pocket. I don’t love taking road teams, but this matchup favors Texas A&M in nearly every aspect.
Pick: Texas A&M 23, LSU 20 (Texas A&M -2.5)
It looked like the Wolverines fixed the Rubik’s Cube last week. It was like the old Rubik’s Cube they played with in their childhood days, that they knew and solved for years. After losing it for a few weeks, they found it in time for the Washington game last week.
That win over Washington really looked like Michigan football. It ran well. It blocked well. There was a lot less blitzing. It allowed its defense to just go out and make plays. If Michigan watches that film, it’s going to say, “Yep, that feels familiar. That’s where we want to sit and that is our blueprint.” If it’s able to sit in that blueprint, then it should be able to control the tempo of the game, because it’s better than Michigan State on both lines of scrimmage.
Michigan State has improved in the passing game, but it hasn’t been able to run the football. It has 89 rushing yards per game in Big Ten play, and that’s just not going to cut it against Michigan. Michigan State allowed UCLA to go for 238 yards on the ground a couple of weeks ago, too. It hung around for a quarter and a half against Indiana last week, but the Hoosiers were able to run away.
The only thing for me on the Michigan State side is that this is a kitchen-sink type of game. Michigan hasn’t run away from anybody this year, either. So, 14.5 points is a big number for Michigan, but I still like it to win the game decisively.
Pick: Michigan 30, Michigan State 17 (Michigan State +14.5)
These two teams are kind of opposites. Ole Miss has a great offense but is a bit suspect on defense after it couldn’t get a stop when it mattered against Georgia last week. Oklahoma has a great defense but is a suspect on offense. Oklahoma QB John Mateer hasn’t looked great since coming back from that hand injury a couple of weeks ago. I’m getting the same vibes with Mateer that I had with Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke after he had similar surgery last season.
That said, Oklahoma has to start getting something out of the run game. It showed some signs of life against South Carolina last week, but that’s a bad Razorbacks team that everyone has been able to run against.
As for Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss, I think that game at Georgia last week was a huge learning curve moment for him, but Chambliss is a guy that I really believe in. He’s really talented. This is a guy that can put up a lot of points, and head coach Lane Kiffin’s going to have a plan for him to get easy completions against this defense early in the game.
Ultimately, I think Oklahoma is able to win a tight battle that’s relatively lower scoring for Ole Miss.
Pick: Oklahoma 24, Ole Miss 21 (Ole Miss +5.5)
I love the quarterback battle in this game, but I think Vandy has got the edge there. Just the moxy and competitiveness of Pavia makes me really like the way he plays. I know that he turned the football over against Alabama, but Mizzou QB Beau Pribula has really struggled with interceptions over the past few weeks.
Missouri also hasn’t run the ball as effectively over the last couple of weeks with RB Ahmad Hardy as it did earlier this season. However, Mizzou has a good pass rush as it tries to get after Pavia, who has only been sacked five times this season, but it’ll be so difficult to do because Pavia is just so creative. Pavia really just wills his team to victory, similar to Georgia Tech breakout signal-caller Haynes King.
This could be a trap game for Vanderbilt, though. It’s in the top 10 for the first time, and it’s coming off that big victory over LSU last week before facing Texas next week. That environment should be rocking, though, and in a game that’s essentially a pick ‘em (Vanderbilt -2.5), I’ve got to go with the team that has the better quarterback.
Pick: Vanderbilt 27, Missouri 20 (Vanderbilt -2.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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