NFL Draft: The best first-round pick in each spot, 1 to 32, in the past decade
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Last week, we sought to find the best value NFL Draft pick over the past decade for each round, everyone from Lamar Jackson as a first-round gem to Brock Purdy as the best seventh-rounder.
The story generated a lot of back-and-forth — Is Tyreek Hill the best fifth-round pick or George Kittle? — so we thought we’d try an extension of the same challenge. Today, we look for the best draft pick since 2015 at each spot in the first round, from No. 1 to No. 32.
This isn’t an easy task. It’s trying to compare 10-year veterans to players who just finished their rookie seasons, and the weight of positional value only complicates the process. Is it better to find a good quarterback or a great safety? Should we assess a player’s value only to the team that drafted him, or for his entire career, including his contributions after he moved on?
Slicing up the draft by selection also can show surprising trends. If you tallied up all the Pro Bowl selections for each spot in the draft, you’d expect a steady linear decline — the most with No. 1 picks, slightly less with No. 2 picks, etc. — but that’s not exactly the case.
Consider the No. 13 pick of the draft: Over the past 10 years, No. 13 picks have produced 18 Pro Bowl selections, exactly the same number as all the No. 1 overall picks. The absolute sweet spot of the draft in the past decade? The No. 5 pick, after teams have traded up to overdraft quarterbacks. No. 5 picks have combined for 22 Pro Bowl selections, the most of any slot.
If you want to appreciate what a crapshoot the draft is, even by the end of the first round, consider the final four picks. The past decade has produced two absolute steals there in Jackson and T.J. Watt, who have combined for 11 Pro Bowl selections. But the other 36 players taken between picks 29 and 32 have combined … for just one Pro Bowl selection.
We’ll go in reverse order to build up to the top of the draft. At each spot, we’ll pick one player as the best pick at that position, along with two honorable mentions. You’ll see quickly that there’s a wide deviation from the overall success of one slot to the next, even over a sample of 10 years.
No. 32: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens, 2018
Jackson is a runaway winner — two MVPs, four Pro Bowls, 166 touchdown passes against 49 interceptions with another 6,173 rushing yards and 33 touchdowns on the ground. He hasn’t found the ultimate team success in the playoffs, but for the final pick in the first round, you can’t do better than Jackson.
Honorable mention: T Ryan Ramczyk, Saints, 2017; DT Malcom Brown, Patriots, 2015
No. 31: Kaleb McGary, T, Falcons, 2019
They’re not all going to be two-time MVP winners. McGary is a six-year starter in Atlanta, with 92 career starts, good enough to earn a three-year, $34 million deal from the Falcons that ends after the upcoming season. The No. 31 pick is one of only two that have not yielded a single Pro Bowl nod in the past 10 years (No. 21 is the other).
Another easy one: Watt has made the Pro Bowl in each of the last seven seasons, piling up 108 career sacks already. That’s the fourth-most ever in a player’s first eight NFL seasons, and the three with more (Deacon Jones, Reggie White, DeMarcus Ware) are all in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Another weak draft slot overall, but Njoku has a Pro Bowl nod, 351 catches and 30 touchdowns, all with the Browns. It’s hard to fill out two honorable mentions from the 29th picks of the last 10 years — none of the others have more than 46 career starts, and the recent picks ranked 73rd, 74th and 114th at their positions in 2024.
Queen has made the Pro Bowl each of the last two years, with 100-plus tackles in each of the last three. He hasn’t missed a game in five years in the league, has at least one fumble forced and recovered every year, and signed a three-year, $41 million deal with the Steelers a year ago.
Clark is an eight-year starter for Green Bay with three Pro Bowl nods, already with 126 career starts and 35 sacks. The 2016 draft wasn’t a great one, and Clark went one pick after the Broncos took quarterback Paxton Lynch, who played in five games and was out of the league in two years.
You don’t want to overemphasize quarterbacks, but if a player you took at No. 26 gets a $220 million contract, it was a good pick. Love only has two years as a starter, but he has 57 touchdowns against 22 interceptions in those two seasons, with two playoff appearances. Green Bay moved up four spots to get him, and the fourth-rounder they gave up in that deal was used on a player already out of the league.
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No. 25: Tyler Linderbaum, C, Ravens, 2022
Linderbaum has two Pro Bowls in his three NFL seasons and graded as Pro Football Focus’ No. 3 center this past season. It can be hard to choose a young player like this when there are veterans with much more experience taken in the same slot, but Linderbaum gets the nod as a consistent young centerpiece on Baltimore’s line.
Jacobs gets the nod over another durable running back in Najee Harris, taken in the same spot two years later, because Jacobs has a 4.3-yard average to Harris’ 3.9, and he has 61 touchdowns in six NFL seasons, along with two Pro Bowls. Jacobs led the NFL in rushing in 2022 and scored a career-best 15 TDs in 2024.
We’re projecting a bit to choose a rookie here, but what a debut season Thomas had last fall, leading NFL rookies with 10 touchdown receptions and finishing with 1,282 receiving yards as a bright spot on a bad Jaguars team. It’s a tough call, comparing one year with a tackle talented enough to get a $104 million contract.
Honorable mention: T Christian Darrisaw, Vikings, 2021; WR Jordan Addison, Vikings, 2023
No. 22: Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings, 2020
An absolute steal, with 40 touchdowns now in his first five NFL seasons, finishing in the top five in MVP voting in 2022 after leading the league with 1,809 receiving yards. Minnesota took Jefferson with the main pick in a package acquired from Buffalo for Stefon Diggs, who made four Pro Bowls in four years with the Bills, totaling 37 touchdowns.
The Steelers have the 21st pick in this year’s draft, and we’ll warn them: No player selected 21st has made a single Pro Bowl since 2014 pick Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. McDuffie has a first-team All-Pro nod in 2023 and two Super Bowl rings in his three NFL seasons. He’s going to get paid in the next year.
You don’t get many centers taken this high, but Ragnow has four Pro Bowls in the past five years, leading a physical Detroit line. The rest of the No. 20 picks in the past decade have combined for one Pro Bowl, so this was an easy pick.
Really tempting to go with rookie Jared Verse here after he won Defensive Rookie of the Year honors after going 19th, but we’ll stick with Simmons, who has three Pro Bowls in the last four years, with 31.5 career sacks as an interior rusher.
One of the toughest decisions out of 32 was choosing between Peters and center Ryan Kelly, who has four Pro Bowls as a mainstay for the Colts. Peters had 33 career interceptions though, a strong number by today’s standards, much like his seven pick-sixes. If we do this a year from now, Peters drops out and Kelly is a worthy replacement.
Honorable mention: C Ryan Kelly, Colts, 2016; CB Jaire Alexander, Packers, 2018
No. 17: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys, 2020
This is another loaded spot: No. 17 picks over the past 10 drafts have 14 Pro Bowls, which ties for the sixth-most of any draft slot, impressive for the second half of the round. You could go any of three ways here. We’ll go with Lamb, prolific with 38 touchdowns in five years, averaging 99 catches per season, but our two runner-ups at 17 would both be easy winners at No. 15 or 16.
A year ago, this might have gone to another player, but Humphrey had a career-best six interceptions in 2024, sending him to the Pro Bowl for the fourth time in the last six years. His 15 career forced fumbles is a ridiculous number for a cornerback, including eight in one season in 2020.
This is the worst spot in the top 20. We’ll go with Miller, who is a seven-year starter for the Raiders, good enough for a three-year, $54 million contract. No Pro Bowls, but we’ll still give him the nod in a group of mostly journeyman players.
Hamilton has two Pro Bowls and a first-team All-Pro nod in the last two years, earning the spot here. You don’t see safeties in the top half of the draft much these days, but Hamilton has shown it can be a worthwhile pick. There’s not a ton of depth at 14.
Honorable mention: G Chris Lindstrom, Falcons, 2019; DT Javon Kinlaw, 49ers, 2020
No. 13: Tristan Wirfs, T, Bucs, 2020
As we mentioned, the talent and depth among players taken at No. 13 is incredible. Five of the 10 guys taken 13th already have multiple Pro Bowl nods, and two more have at least one. We’ll go with Wirfs here, already an All-Pro at left and right tackle, and this competition is deep enough we’ll give shout-outs to two who would get honorable mentions at most spots: edge Haason Reddick and tackle Rashawn Slater.
Honorable mention: T Laremy Tunsil, Dolphins, 2016; TE Brock Bowers, Raiders, 2024
No. 12: Micah Parsons, OLB, Cowboys, 2021
This was easy — four years and four Pro Bowls for Parsons, already with 52.5 sacks and next in line for the “highest-paid non-quarterback” titles getting passed around like a hot potato this spring. Whether it’s from Dallas or not, he’ll be getting $40 million a year on his next deal.
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No. 11: Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Dolphins, 2018
Tough call between two defensive backs here, but we’ll go with Fitzpatrick, who has five Pro Bowls and 20 career interceptions, most with the Steelers, who smartly traded a first-round pick for him in 2019. The rest is largely underwhelming.
Do we have to lay it out? Three Super Bowl wins, two losses, six Pro Bowls, two MVPs, already with more postseason touchdowns (46) than anyone but Tom Brady. He’s not even 30 yet and has 245 career touchdown passes against 74 interceptions. By the time he’s done, there will be a lot of “more than anyone but Brady” résumé lines.
Surtain has three Pro Bowls in his four NFL seasons, and the rest of the No. 9 picks have only one, so this is an easy call. His four interceptions this past season helped him earn AP Defensive Player of the Year honors. With 11 picks already, can he catch his father’s career total of 37?
Injuries have limited him, but he’s only a year removed from leading the NFL in rushing, with 500-plus career catches and 81 total touchdowns. His early years in Carolina were wild, with back-to-back seasons with 1,000-plus rushing yards and 100-plus catches.
An easy decision, even before he took home the 2024 AP MVP award. Allen has led the Bills to double-digit wins in six straight seasons, and while he hasn’t been able to get over that final hump to the Super Bowl, he does it all, with 27 rushing touchdowns in the past two years in addition to his passing numbers.
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No. 6: Quenton Nelson, G, Colts, 2018
While guard isn’t a coveted position, Nelson has made the Pro Bowl in all seven seasons he has played in Indianapolis. That’s enough to keep him ahead of Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who still has no playoff wins and just one Pro Bowl.
Honorable mention: QB Justin Herbert, Chargers, 2020; T Ronnie Stanley, Ravens, 2016
No. 5: Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals, 2021
He just got $40 million a year after winning the receiving Triple Crown in 2024, leading the NFL in catches, receiving yards and touchdowns. This is the best slot in the NFL draft over the past decade: 22 Pro Bowls, more than any other position, including No. 1 overall. Jalen Ramsey has been to seven Pro Bowls and still doesn’t get the nod — that’s how good the 5s are.
With two Pro Bowls and two first-team All-Pro nods in his first three seasons, Gardner is another talent due for a massive contract in the near future. This slot has some major disappointments as much as big hits. How will we look back on Ezekiel Elliott, who led the NFL in rushing twice in his first three years but has trailed off in the second half of his career?
You can make a case for four different defensive standouts taken third overall, so this isn’t a clear-cut winner at all. Two young Texans are just beginning to find themselves in corner Derek Stingley and edge Will Anderson. Bosa has five Pro Bowls and 72 career sacks, but he has been limited by injuries much of the last three years and was released by the Chargers. You can make a case for Quinnen Williams, with Pro Bowls in each of the last three seasons, here as well.
So many ways to go at 2-3 here. Two Bosas or no Bosas? Two Texans or no Texans? Nick Bosa has five Pro Bowls in his six seasons, Saquon Barkley just rushed for 2,000 yards in helping the Eagles to a Super Bowl championship, and you have C.J. Stroud making a strong impression in his first two seasons. Were it not for injury this past season, we might have Aidan Hutchinson in this spot. But we’ll go with Daniels, who had one of the best rookie quarterback seasons ever, taking the Commanders from 4-13 to 12-5, throwing for 25 touchdowns against only nine interceptions, rushing for 891 yards and another six scores. The electric playmaking ability, the way he found ways to win games at the end, the unexpected playoff push, this all adds up to our choice at No. 2.
Quarterbacks account for eight of the past 10 No. 1 overall picks, and you can make a strong case for the Bengals’ Joe Burrow as the best of that bunch, with a Super Bowl appearance and then leading the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns this past season. But we’ll choose Garrett, who just earned a $40 million-a-year contract as briefly the highest-paid non-QB in the league. He has six Pro Bowls and four first-team All-Pro nods in his eight NFL seasons, with at least 14 sacks in each of the last four years to already give him 102.5 for his career — and he just turned 29. That consistent elite play at perhaps the most important position other than quarterback is enough to lift him above all those passers.
Honorable mention: QB Joe Burrow, Bengals, 2020; QB Jared Goff, Rams, 2016
Some final notes: The Ravens had the most players named here, with five players chosen as the best at their slot and nine total named including honorable mentions. The only other team with even five total players named was the Chargers (5), ahead of six teams that had four each. Out of 32 teams, all but one (Cardinals) had at least one player chosen among our 96 picks.
As with the best-of-each-round story last week, we look forward to your feedback online. Who are the most glaring omissions? Which honorable mentions should have been the winner at their draft slot? And why wasn’t Tom Brady chosen here, since he won so many Super Bowls?
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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