Thunder vs. Pacers predictions, picks: Back Indiana to have big first quarter

We’re all gearing up for Wednesday’s Game 3 of the NBA Finals. 

And, yes, the series is tied. But because OKC has pretty much dominated every quarter, it feels very much like the Thunder are in the driver’s seat.

Does this change tonight now that the Pacers get to take the court in front of their home crowd?

Well, let’s wager on it. 

Pacers First Quarter 

My favorite wagering opportunity of any NBA series is this first-quarter wager on the home team in Game 3. 

This is their first chance of a series to play in front of the home crowd. Whether down in the series 0-2, up 2-0 or tied, this is a spot where the home team brings the juice and energy. 

This wager would require the Pacers to play better than we’ve seen for a majority of the series. The Thunder have controlled about 95% of this series and have won nearly every meaningful quarter of action, outside the fourth quarter of Game 1. 

The Pacers will need to find some easier offense against this suffocating Thunder defense. They will find that offense off the fast break and off missed Thunder shots early in this contest. The road team does not shoot as well early in Game 3 scenarios and the Pacers will use this opportunity to get a jump on OKC. 

I also expect Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton to play with more urgency after two subpar scoring performances. Yes, he made the game-winner in Game 1 but went Under 17.5 points. He had just 14 points in Game 2. 

Haliburton being more aggressive will open up the Pacers offense early. I like them to start fast here. 

PICK: Pacers (+1.5) first quarter

Was Tyrese Haliburton crowned a superstar too early?

Alex Caruso Over/Under 9.5 points

An opportunity to fade a role player who’s coming off an amazing scoring output and is now playing on the road is too good to pass up. 

Caruso scored 20 points in 27 minutes in Game 2, tied for his highest point total of the season. He made four 3-pointers, which was the third time this season he’s made more than three 3-pointers in a game. In the previous two games, he made zero 3s in the following game, including Game 2 against the Nuggets in the conference semifinals. He was 5-of-9 from three in Game 1, followed by 0-2 in Game 2. 

Caruso has gone well above his season average in points five times over the course of the entire season and then followed that up with fewer than nine points in the next contest. He scored 17 in November, followed by eight the next game. He had 17 again in March, followed by eight again the next game. 

Against the Nuggets, he scored 20, followed by two in the next game. I like Caruso Under 9.5 points tonight. 

PICK: Alex Caruso Under 9.5 points

Chet Holmgren Over/Under 8.5 rebounds 

I can’t quit this wager, even though I’ve been painfully wrong two straight games. 

Not only have I gotten this handicap wrong, it’s just not fun to watch Holmgren attempt to grab rebounds in this series, as he’s often overwhelmed by players who are more physical. However, I get a better number (you can grab 7.5 at -150) than opening (9.5) and he’s going to get those opportunities to rebound in this game if he just goes to the ball. 

He’s been a bit unfortunate, as some rebounds have fallen straight to Isaiah Hartenstein instead of to him or other guys have jumped in front of him for the board. 

Also, during a series, Holmgren seems to get more comfortable the longer it goes, and I’m hoping we see that here. We did see him come alive scoring in Game 2 and I’m hopeful the rebounds come alive Wednesday. 

PICK: Chet Holmgren (+105) Over 8.5 rebounds

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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