What can we realistically expect from Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy in 2025?

Justin Jefferson kept it real about J.J. McCarthy’s learning curve. Early in Vikings training camp, surrounded by a media scrum, the superstar wide receiver admitted that he’ll have to be patient with the quarterback situation. That’s what comes with a green passer, even one who’s not technically a rookie.

“Last year pretty much doesn’t count for him,” Jefferson said of McCarthy. “He’s still new to the scheme, new to coming out here and throwing it to these different receivers. So yes, you have to have that patience. 

“You’re not really expecting him to have the same mindset as a veteran,” he added. “You can’t really have that expectation.”

As McCarthy enters his first game action on Saturday since tearing the meniscus in his right knee last August, Jefferson isn’t downgrading Minnesota’s new quarterback. He’s simply framing the expectations. Jefferson understands that McCarthy, the first QB selected in the first round in the modern era to miss his entire rookie season due to injury, will experience the normal ups and downs for first-time NFL passers. 

It’s a particularly important message considering the pressure-filled situation that McCarthy enters. 

J.J. McCarthy’s rookie season was cut short due to a knee injury in his first preseason game as a pro. He’ll be back in action on Saturday, one day shy of a year later. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)

The Vikings won 14 regular-season games last year with a resurgent Sam Darnold, who then played poorly in the team’s final two games, including Minnesota’s wild-card loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Entering 2025, all the Vikings appear to need to be a true Super Bowl contender is elite quarterback play. 

Even with Darnold walking in free agency, Minnesota looks even better on paper thanks to its upgrades in the trenches. If McCarthy succeeds right away, the Vikings will be off to the races. If he struggles, it could set the franchise back years. 

So expectations for the young quarterback must be tempered — even if what Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud did in back-to-back years has skewed what’s possible for passers in their debut season. 

What’s been positive for McCarthy early in training camp is his mindset facing Brian Flores’ defense in practice every day. Known for his aggressive and creative schemes, Flores has been throwing the kitchen sink at McCarthy. 

“There’s so much learning involved,” McCarthy said last week. “With those front seven guys and that rush, it’s tremendous to feel that early on and be able to make quicker decisions — get to my [running] back, maybe find an escape lane here or there when they’re playing man on the back end. 

“When the periods don’t go your way, you’re always asking why,” he added. “It’s never a loss, and you’re always learning from it — if it’s good or bad. But especially in those periods where they really get you, that’s where we can really learn the most about ourselves and our offense’s identity.” 

The Vikings have also praised McCarthy’s leadership ability. 

“He’s an incredible talent and super smart,” tight end T.J. Hockenson said. “He has one of those brains to where you know he’s a quarterback. He has a lot going through his head. He’s a guy that is able to lead the team. You can tell that just being out here with him for a few days.”

That doesn’t mean there haven’t been challenging days and teachable moments in camp, though. 

Most NFL games come down to execution in a handful of critical situations — which Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell continually reinforces with the former Michigan star. 

“What I’m so excited about … is the dialogue of the great protection calls he’s made,” O’Connell said. “It’s the dialogue of a great checkdown he’s made on first-and-10 when maybe the downfield shot’s not there. Those are the things that I’ve really enjoyed and really seen him grow. At the same time, he’s a competitive sucker now. He wants to win every drill and win every day. That’s kind of my job, to try to bring a complete feel to everything that we’re doing.”

After leading Sam Darnold to a career resurgence, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell now has a new pupil in J.J. McCarthy. (Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Jefferson is McCarthy’s locker mate. He sees the progress on and off the field. He sees the confidence required to succeed at the highest level. 

The All-Pro receiver believes expectations of the young quarterback should be tempered, sure. But don’t mistake that for a lack of belief. 

“You can kind of see the confidence he has out there,” Jefferson said. “If you’re in the huddle, you see the confidence he has just saying the play and just getting out there and wanting to make the next play. 

“We do have an expectation of him to be great.” 

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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