Who can catch Alex Palou in the INDYCAR standings? Pato O’Ward? Will Power?

Just how big is Alex Palou’s point lead in the INDYCAR standings?

Big. Like a 5-1 halftime lead in the World Cup.

Palou has a 90-point lead on Pato O’Ward with 10 races remaining. Let’s just say O’Ward, who is in second, continues at his current points pace. Palou would need to average just 23 points a race to remain ahead of him. That’s an eighth-place finish without leading a lap.

Now let’s say O’Ward averages 44.4 points a race — Palou’s current clip, even with a 25th-place finish after being wrecked out of Detroit — Palou would need to average 35.4 points a race to stay ahead of him. That’s an average third-place finish with some laps led and/or poles at a few events. For the first six events, Palou’s average finish was 1.2.

So Palou no doubt does have a big lead in a series where the winner earns 50 points, second-place is worth 40 points, third 35 points and fourth 32 points. Fifth through 10th are paid on a 30-28-26-24-22-20 scale and then points decrease by one from 11th throughout the rest of the field. A pole is worth one point, leading a lap is one point and most laps led are two points.

The remainder of the season includes five ovals. There’s WWTR Gateway this weekend, two Iowa races, Milwaukee and the season finale at Nashville. There is one street course at Toronto left and four events at permanent road courses. Those are at Road America, Mid-Ohio, Laguna Seca and Portland.

Who could best unseat Palou? 

Let’s take a look at the eight drivers closest to him in the standings. But keep in mind that all would almost need Palou to have a few more races where he doesn’t earn significant points.

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Pato O’Ward (90 points behind)

Of the 28 career podiums for O’Ward, 13 have come at tracks still left in the season. But wins? He does have one win at Iowa, one at Mid-Ohio and one at Milwaukee in his career. The Arrow McLaren driver probably needs at least three wins in the final 10 races to have shot.

Kyle Kirkwood (-102)

Kirkwood is the only driver other than Palou to win this year, but he is going to have to be more consistent on tracks that aren’t street courses if he wants any chance of catching Palou. The Andretti driver would need to have a breakout year on ovals to have a shot. And he hasn’t had a podium on an oval in his career. That being said, he was fast at Indy.

Christian Lundgaard (-106)

Much like Kirkwood, Lundgaard’s best races have come on non-oval races. He doesn’t have a podium on ovals. He did win at Toronto in 2023. But in his first year at Arrow McLaren, he will likely need at least another year before challenging for the title.

Will Power (-136)

Power might actually be the biggest threat to Palou. He won at Road America, Iowa and Portland last year and had a second in one of the Milwaukee races (there were two at that track in 2024). Of the tracks remaining, the Team Penske driver has wins at Gateway (one), Road America (two), Mid-Ohio (one), Iowa (one), Toronto (three) and Portland (two).

Felix Rosenqvist (-136)

Rosenqvist doesn’t have a podium on an oval in his career and last year had just one top 10 on the tracks remaining on the circuit. He is having a breakout season, but the Meyer Shank driver would really need to have a career finish to challenge.

Scott Dixon (-138)

Like Power, the veteran Dixon has won at most tracks remaining on the circuit. But let’s just say he would need seven podiums in the final 10 races to make a run. The Ganassi driver had six combined in the last two years at the remaining tracks. Here are the wins he’s had at the remaining tracks: Gateway (two), Road America (two), Mid-Ohio (six), Toronto (four), Laguna Seca (one), Milwaukee (one) and Nashville (three). 

Scott McLaughlin (-147)

Of McLaughlin’s 20 podium finishes, he has 12 — including three wins — at tracks left this season. So he has good tracks for him on the remaining schedule. The Penske driver knows how to go fast. He was on the pole at Gateway and for one of the Iowa races last year, while also starting second at Milwaukee and the other Iowa race.

Colton Herta (-154)

Herta’s last win came at Nashville in the season finale last year. He also has wins at Laguna Seca (two), Toronto and Mid-Ohio on his resume. It would take an unbelievable set of circumstances for the Andretti driver to go on a strong run, for Palou to drop and not for others ahead of Herta in the standings not take advantage of a Palou collapse as well.  

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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