Yankees’ Plan B begins with Max Fried. Could they be better off without Juan Soto?

DALLAS — The Yankees didn’t get what they ultimately wanted. But there’s still time for them to get what they need. 

Despite October’s World Series run, New York entered the offseason with more than a few holes on its roster. The starting rotation might not have appeared to be one of them, but the addition of Max Fried gives the Yankees arguably the best staff in the American League. While it was a surprise that they guaranteed the 31-year-old Fried the most money for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history ($218 million over eight years), their quick pivot to a second ace could provide flexibility in how they address the offensive void created by losing the Juan Soto sweepstakes. 

That prompted the following debate between our MLB writers: 

Given what it would have cost to sign Juan Soto, how do you feel about the Max Fried contract? Could you see the Yankees being better off in the aggregate without Soto?

Deesha Thosar: Finally, Yankees fans can breathe a sigh of relief knowing the team has shrugged off the loss of Soto and moved on in a significant way. Brian Cashman revealed the Yankees weren’t able to go all-in on a competitive offer for Blake Snell because they were waiting to see how their payroll would be impacted by Soto’s decision. That ultimately cost them when Snell quickly signed with the Dodgers. So, it was smart of the Yankees front office to go right after Fried, the other top left-handed pitcher on the market, less than 48 hours after they lost Soto to the Mets.

I’m more surprised at the length of the Fried contract than I am with the expenditure. Giving an eight-year deal to a 31-year-old with a history of recent forearm injuries is certainly a risk. Fried has the third-best ERA (2.81) among all major-league starting pitchers since 2020, but the Yankees expecting him to be anywhere near that productive into his age-39 season is unanticipated. Those extra years the Yankees tacked on to the deal, however, allowed them to lower his annual average value to $27.25 million, which means they can keep spending this winter.

Reading Cashman’s tea leaves, it sounds like the Yankees would not have been in the mix for Fried if they had acquired Soto. So, in that vein, the Yankees are beginning to improve their roster — in potentially multiple ways — without Soto. The rotation now consists of seven starters. In addition to Fried, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón figure to be the only mainstays, with at least one of Clarke Schmidt, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman likely to be traded. There is no denying that the Yankees offense is worse without Soto, but they can bolster it by swapping an arm or two for an impact bat.

That’s where a trade for Cody Bellinger is beginning to make too much sense for the Yankees. Bellinger’s versatility allows the Yankees to plug him in at first base, center field or right field, and even though he’s no Soto (no one is), his left-handed bat figures to play well in Yankee Stadium. Bellinger is set to make $27.5 million this season and has a player option for $25 million in 2026, and the Yankees still have payroll flexibility for him even after signing Fried. Signing Fried alone doesn’t make the Yankees better off without Soto, but they’re positioned well to make a couple more splashy moves to try and get there.

Rowan Kavner: This is more than I expected for Fried, but in this post-Soto world, my brain might not work anymore. The average annual value is completely reasonable — his $27.25 million per year is just a tick ahead of what his rotation mate Carlos Rodón will be making — but the length of the contract came as a surprise as Fried enters his age-31 season coming off back-to-back years of forearm issues. That’s a long time for a starting pitcher in his 30s, particularly one with an injury history. Then again, the Yankees clearly felt like they had to do something quickly to save face in the aftermath of Soto’s departure, and they aren’t wrong. I would’ve liked Snell more for them, but after missing out on him during their pursuit of Soto, it certainly doesn’t hurt their cause to grab one of the top pitchers on the market, even if eight years is one or two more than I would’ve felt comfortable with.

Fried’s consistency is exemplary. His ability to keep the ball on the ground and induce soft contact has led to a 2.81 ERA over the past five years — the best mark among pitchers who have logged at least 500 innings in that time — and he has posted a 3.25 ERA or lower every year in that stretch. He was clearly in the upper tier of free-agent pitchers this winter, but for a contending team looking for a difference-maker in October, I would have slotted him just behind Corbin Burnes and Snell, given Fried’s inability to consistently miss bats. That has gotten him into trouble in recent postseasons — he has allowed 14 runs (12 earned) in his past three playoff appearances dating back to 2022 — but he did throw six shutout innings in Game 6 of the 2021 World Series while helping the Braves to a championship.

It’s still hard to imagine any non-Shohei Ohtani player being worth more than $700 million, but to be better in the aggregate without Soto, it will take a LOT more work from the Yankees this winter. I don’t see that happening without multiple impact bats, at minimum. They’d probably have to get two of Alex Bregman, Christian Walker or Teoscar Hernández to start building an argument. On the trade market, it also wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see them go after Cody Bellinger, given his ability to help in center and at first.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB reporter for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.

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